Still, better will have been expected overall and better will be needed if Shishkin’s price is not to flirt with odds-against between now and mid-March. Last year’s Arkle winner has excellent Cheltenham form, being three from three at the track including that Festival Bolts Up Daily score. Dan Skelton trains this mare and she’s looked very good either side of a two length third to Paisley Park and Thyme Hill in the Grade 2 Long Walk Hurdle in December. Shady Operator could be an apt winner for players of this slightly snide angle.
International Races
Before being sidelined last autumn, he was in the saddle when Envoi Allen stretched his unbeaten record to nine races in the Grade 1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. Russell was forced to miss the bulk of the latest National Hunt season – including the spring festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown – and also sat out last month’s Galway Festival. Formerly trained on the Flat by David Menuisier, the grey made a successful debut over hurdles at Punchestown last month and was among the leading contenders on his return to the level. For De Sousa it was confirmation of a return to the very top in Britain, after his spell in Hong Kong ended prematurely following a 10-month suspension imposed for breaching betting rules. GOD’S OWN Has some solid form in his record but is a light of former days and hard to fancy.
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- The four-year-old grey has improved this season, winning a Listed race at Doncaster and the Group 2 bet365 Mile at Sandown, while he was second to Audience in the Lockinge at Newbury last time out.
- If you’re a lover of figures (and we are, of course) he comes out well on both form and time.
- With the more recent addition of betting apps, it has become easier than ever before for punters to back a horse.
- Our Bet Slip allows you to build up your selections before you begin placing multiple bets with your favourite bookmakers.
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Cheltenham Festival Novice Grade 1 Micro System
Found A Fifty has led in each of his four chase spins and will face pace contention here; that might compromise his chance. In any case, he looks a little way behind peak showings from the other pair mentioned so far. As I write there are four horses priced at 5/1 or shorter, headed – just – by Gaelic Warrior. Trained by Mullins for Ricci, he was presumed for the Turners after his romp in the Grade 1 Faugheen Novices’ Chase over two and a half miles at Christmas. But then came Leopardstown and the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) where, in the Grade 1 novice chase there, he just ran a shocker.
Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day One Preview, Tips
Despite previous trends favouring shorter-priced horses, this year’s contest appears to be wide open. The absence of a standout bumper horse from Ireland contributes to the race’s unpredictability, reflected in bookmakers offering odds of 6/1 for the entire field at time of writing (Tuesday morning). He’s capable of getting placed, but too expensive to follow. Paul Nicholls’ Stay Away Fay won last year’s Albert Bartlett Hurdle and has had a great start to his chasing career winning his first two and then running the race of his life when a close third in the Cotswold Chase last time out.
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There are horse racing tips all over the internet to help you find a good deal and get to grips with some of the many unusual phrases that you will find here. With livestreams, plenty of odds, and fast horse racing results, bookies work hard to ensure that bettors have everything they need to master this type of wagering. Take a look at some of the races and odds available at the best online horse racing betting sites now.
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She was second in the Mare’s Novice Hurdle in 2021 and was a well beaten in last year’s Arkle but that was a much better race than this. She’s had four runs since that Arkle, winning twice and second twice. She’s genuine and always runs her race and still only a 7-year-old there is plenty of improvement to come from her I feel.
Our Scout and Trader picked out the following bets for Race 5 ????????
Willie Mullins has a fantastic record in open handicap hurdles at the Fez, scoring seven times from just 60 starters in the past decade. He’s also added another ten placed horses for a brilliant 28% place strike rate. Gordon Elliott has performed even better in place terms, hitting the frame with twelve of his 34 such runners (35%). He also has a win and two places in the Fred Winter, from 11 starters.
Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 3 ????????
For example, the going at Cheltenham last week was Good and it was noticeable that connections did not want to risk some of their better class horses making seasonal returns and debuts on anything other than totally ideal jumping ground. It could be that the summer types have conditions swung back in their favour at this later stage of their campaigns. In theory William Money is thrown-in racing of a 15lb lower mark than when winning over fences 2 days ago. The question is whether he will transfer that form to hurdles. Live and Table Games have a 0% contribution, only Slots & instants count towards playthrough. Today, horse racing betting is a £4.6 billion per year industry.
Veneer of Charm wins the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle
Cue Card’s form of last season would give him a great chance today. £/€10 min stake on Casino slots within 30 days of registration. Max bonus 200 Free Spins on selected games credited within 48 hours. Now, no betting system is perfect, and some may prove to be more hype than substance, but there are three that are worth taking an in-depth look at specifically.
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Mitbaahy opened his campaign with a close second at Nottingham at the start of May before going one better against three opponents for a valuable conditions stakes over five furlongs at Hamilton Park the following month. In the Coral Cup, Fixe Le Kap can run a big race at a big price. He has had problems this season but is back in top form at home and has the soft ground that he relishes. I have spoken to Daryl Jacob and he is going to ride a patient race, sneaking into contention, and he is one of the best in the weighing room at that. You could not wish to meet a nicer guy than Daryl, and there is nobody better at holding up a horse, so I have given him his riding instructions and told him to creep into the race. The versatility of PRESENTING PERCY is rare in a staying chaser and that quality suggests he is a cut above the average.
The nature of most HC1 plays is that we’re grappling in the dark, with every chance that the horse is just not very able and runs a clunker. Below are a few more Instant Expert grids, and your challenge is to decide which horses offered playable value, and which races looked too competitive and should have been passed. Even if we’re right about the true odds being 7/2, we’re still looking at 77.7% losers. But, over a thousand £1 bets, those 22.3% winners (223) will return £1,115 – or a profit of 11.5%.
Hot Trainers
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Ayr racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Ayr Gold Cup. If you are looking to place a bet on this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works. Created in 2007, this class two handicap is run over a trip of six furlongs at Doncaster Racecourse and is open to runners who are aged three or older.
Here there appears to be quite strong correlation between Elliott’s four-month form and his Festival form. When looking at a combination of events – say, all trainer’s runners over a period of time – we can derive an overall PRB figure and use that for comparative purposes. Asterion Forlonge – not on his feet for longe [harsh] – is a really talented horse who is probably just a bit soft.
Breeders’ Cup 2024 at Del Mar: a look at Aidan O’Brien’s team on Saturday night
We have already noted some positives connected with Irish runners or those that raced in Ireland last time. It goes without saying that the vast majority of horses racing at Cheltenham that raced in Ireland last time out would have been from Irish stables; in fact 97% of them were. LTO winners outside Graded and Listed company have by far the poorest strike rate as you would expect. They have incurred losses of £116.97 (ROI -8.3%) over the period of study. LTO winners outside Graded and Listed company have not surprisingly struggled even more when the race at Cheltenham is a Graded one – in these races their record reads 50 wins from 957 (SR 5.2%) for a loss of £149.46 (ROI -15.6%).
The main event on Day One is the Champion Hurdle, a two mile Grade 1 where the reigning champion, Honeysuckle, will bid to defend her crown. Not only is Kenny Alexander’s mare the reigning champ but she is also unbeaten in 14 career starts under Rules and, before that, a single point to point. The furlong shorter trip compared with the Irish Arkle might be a benefit to Blue Lord, whose credentials look most apparent of the Irish runners even though the eye was naturally drawn to Riviere d’Etel’s unlucky runner up effort there. Haut En Couleurs has plenty of untapped potential and could usurp the finishers from that race if standing up. The jockey – trainer’s son – is a slight concern, too, as he won’t be able to claim his usual five pounds. Maries Rock is very keen, while Teahupoo needs soft ground (might get it).
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MT – This is a great betting race, as it’s a different test from most of the races through the season and throws up some big priced winner as a result. Only one winner shorter than 11/1 in the past nine years. Favori de Champdou and Affordale Fury are two of interest, but whatever you like, swing win only rather than each way.
The opening day always majors on speed, quality, and drama from the get-go, with a double-barrelled Grade 1 two-mile novice volley to kick us off. Irish-trained runners have more than twice the strike rate of their counterparts trained in UK. Moreover, they’ve enjoyed a 55p in the £ difference in their returns, and a clear differential between the A/E indices.
However, I lean towards the Henry De Bromhead duo of Telmesomethinggirl and Lantry Lady. While Rachel Blackmore seems to prefer Telmesomethinggirl, Lantry Lady shows more potential for further improvement, making her the more intriguing option. 20 of the 24 winners this century have been aged 7-9yo but there’s been an 11yo winner in 2021, a couple of 10yo winners (2007 & 2010) plus a French-bred 6yo in 2018. The three winners before the turn of the century were all 10 & 11yo’s so I’m not sure age is too much of an issue for this race.
Not only is Monkfish unbeaten in three chase starts this term, he is also the reigning Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle champ, earning a hard-fought verdict over… That was his only visit to Cheltenham so he is unbeaten in one both at the track and at the Festival. OK, so that last one, and probably/hopefully the last two, are of no consequence to Cheltenham, mercifully; but the others have each caused some degree of consternation in the weeks and months preceding the Festival. With six days until tapes rise on the Supreme, we can hope that all will hereafter be more serene, barring the perennial raft of late scratches and shock race switcheroos.
- Three years made small losses, two years quite big losses.
- The tl;dr (bit late now, I realise) is that five of the last six winners – four of them, like Shishkin, odds-on favourites – won by six lengths or more.
- This gives us 15 years’ worth of data to crunch, which is plenty to get our teeth into.
- Don’t think that race’s profile suits such a strong stayer any more.
- He unseated at the last over course and distance in November, when seemingly having the race in the bag, but had a win before and since.
- LH – Thyme Hill form awful, the time was “glacial” ???? Rain might be important for Gerri Colombe.
- The key here is that north of 1.00 is good, south of 1.00 not so much.
- While the form of this season’s renewal has yet to be franked, Mystical Power bolted up by seven lengths and he is yet to be extended.
The latter pair are both trained by Willie Mullins and both came with ostensibly good French form. Gold Dancer could conceivably step forward significantly from his first run for his new trainer but he’d very much need to. Down the years, this race has been more of a kingmaker for the Champion Hurdle than the Supreme in spite of that one’s recent alumnus Constitution Hill flying the flag for the day one curtain raiser. Gallagher simply looks at Ballyburn and says, “hold my drink”… While the accuracy of Free Horse Racing Tips cannot be guaranteed, Get Your Tips Out have a proven track record of successful predictions.
He’s since won another five Supremes, each ridden by the stable jockey (Ruby four times, Paul Townend once). That Paul has opted for Tullyhill is a potential red herring this year because Mystical Power has a retained jockey – and there is nothing to separate them in the market as I write (Sunday afternoon). Well, classy types have a decent record in the race and Ballyadam, despite the steadier of twelve stone, has bundles of it. A hard task off top weight, but definitely one for those exacta and trifecta mixes.
Just imagine as they freewheel down the hill if he can exclaim, “Jack Kennedy and Samcro are making ground, he hasn’t moved a muscle”. 1m 7f of Grade 1 jump racing coming up – can anyone stop the highly-rated Altior? He goes off at even-money after being punted into odds-on before the start. Altior looked to be struggling but his jockey held him together.
- Sometimes you can spend a lot of time looking for something which, in the end, only tells you that there is probably nothing to be found.
- Without rain, not sure he’ll enjoy downhill sections of the track.
- It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week.
- The tipster behind the ‘No Foto Needed’ service is somebody who currently works within the betting industry and is therefore hugely qualified to supply winning racing tips via this service.
- A good horse can win under an inexperienced jockey but not even Sir Anthony McCoy and Frankie Dettori combined will win on a slow one.
- And I’d especially favour a horse from a wide gate with an ostensibly uncontested lead.
- Joseph O’Brien won this in 2019 with Band Of Outlaws, and saddles Champion Green this time.
However, having said that, taking the overall data into account, one could do worse than focusing attention on this price band. LH – Galopin Des Champs is a very likely winner but, at bigger prices, Ahoy Senor could have a perfect setup in this test. Although Bravemansgame may prefer flatter tracks, he has the strongest form in the race this season. Strongly against A Plus Tard’s profile coming into the race. Even at his best, which we’ve not seen for a year, GdC would beat him anyway.
If you don’t believe me, I’ve copied the in-running comments from his six races over fences below. He’s won them all, but that might be something to keep in mind if you’re tempted to pile in at cramped odds. Fell at 9/2 in 2018, when Min was only second as a 5/2 shot, and – worse – 7th in 2017 as a 2/9 chance.
There are many factors to consider when looking for racing tips. He was much improved at Kempton last time when rattling home and he’s had a little nudge down the weights. The only place to get Templegate’s tips first – and at the best prices – is by joining Sun Racing’s brilliant Members Enclosure.
There are plenty of top class efforts in that sequence, a positive which has to be balanced against the busy campaign; that said, she’s had only the one run in 2022. The first handicap of the week and one that normally goes to a runner close to the head of the market. Of the home team, Edwardstone’s case dwarfs his compatriots, though it is possible that War Lord may significantly reduce the margin by which he was beaten in December.